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Meeting with Professor Emanuel Sivan

“The Living Dead, the Dead Murderers, Radical Suicide Islamists”
TV twists our priorities.

I offer some context:

28/09/00 Social convulsion seizes the West Bank and Gaza. It was grassroots level action with some mid-level leadership.

• Frustration of the populace with the peace process.
• No improvement in economic development
• Israel blocking Palestinian workers’ access to employment led to 20% decline in the standard of living.
• Not a product of Arab Street, it was aimed in both directions.
• All leaderships were taken by surprise
• Arafat turns the screws by violence to push the Oslo outcomes. He did not intend to derail Oslo.
• Fatah takes control. Arafat can’t control the height of the flames.
• The rise of Sharon pushes Arafat into a rudderless position
• International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) An excellent article in Dec 2002 issue of Survival Journal by Sayigh
• Liquidated the Oslo process by stopping action within the Israeli Green Line and Suicide bombing.

+ Palestinians are in a situation of learned helplessness. They are cognitively undamaged, but unable psychologically to respond and unable to control the circumstances of life

+ Suicide needs an organisation to back it and to legitimate it. They need training and brainwashing.

+ Islamic organisations are decentralized. They have been hit hard by Israel. So decisions are now being taken by mid or low level leadership.

+ Arafat has been placed in a rudderless situation by the various reactions to the Intifada.

+ So now we have the “Living Dead” – these people know that they are tracked. But they make unmotivated attacks and no-issue attacks.

+ They are results of depression

+ Evidence that they are being motivated as suicide bombers by ‘religious baggage’ eg. the 72 virgins waiting them in paradise is very slim indeed in many cases. Often programming agents.

Hamas wanted to

• Liquidate Oslo
• Assume power
• Want to veto

Arafat tries to speak to Hamas – both the political wing of Fatah and the militia of Tanzin

But the Islamic Jihad and Radical Islam are fanatics out of control.

+ Hamas has 15% support without any effort. It could go as high as 30% in an election

+ Fatah is under siege.

+ If you are in battle you don’t have an overview.

+ The bad situation is Palestinian mistakes made worse by Israeli Government hitting but not negotiating.

+ The majority of Israelis believe a substantial proportion of settlements must be dislodged and this is a direct result of the Intifada.